"Green Shoots" Pop Quiz

The widely reported “imminent economic recovery” results mainly from:

  1. Record high credit card default rates
  2. Record high prime mortgage default rates
  3. 70-year low US factory capacity utilization
  4. 35-year high unemployment, still rising
  5. 65-year high fiscal deficit, accelerating
  6. Doubling of oil prices in 3 months
  7. Magical thinking

There is essentially no evidence of recovery.  Even a single quarter of positive GDP growth, or employment growth, or income growth.  Anything.  The market is up 35% on sheer hope.  Beware.

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