"Green Shoots" Pop Quiz
The widely reported “imminent economic recovery” results mainly from:
- Record high credit card default rates
- Record high prime mortgage default rates
- 70-year low US factory capacity utilization
- 35-year high unemployment, still rising
- 65-year high fiscal deficit, accelerating
- Doubling of oil prices in 3 months
- Magical thinking
There is essentially no evidence of recovery. Even a single quarter of positive GDP growth, or employment growth, or income growth. Anything. The market is up 35% on sheer hope. Beware.
