The Nail in the Coffin
Much has been written about the speculation on whether the current economy is headed into a recession. Between the mortgage crisis and the inauspicious start of the market dropping 200 points on the first trading day of 2008, all signs seem to point in that direction. However, if there were any doubt, here is the nail in the coffin: this is an election year. Markets do not like uncertainty and this is the first time going back to 1952 when the Vice President of an incumbent President was not the default nominee for the outgoing party. Regardless of what the economy ultimately bears, the uncertainty of the election will cast a long shadow. Don’t look for any real legs in the market until after November.
